A trip is made up of many sessions and therefore more Blackjack rounds. This chart simply expands the x-axis to 1,000-10,000 rounds. Now we start to see more reasonable win rates. We should expect to see 75% of trips of 10,000 rounds win. Still no guarantee, but more reasonable sounding.
Note that these sims include only good rules and error-free play. This may not be possible. On the other hand you can improve these numbers by leaving the table in bad counts. The fewer hands played at a disadvantage, the more likely you will win a session.
These charts were created using simulation data and then checked against calculations using a formula in Don Schlesinger's Blackjack Attack. The sims and calculated results were very close.
www.qfit.com/book/z731Chart.gif
· Six decks, S17, DAS, LS, 4 players, spread 1-15, Hi-Lo Sweet 16 and Fab 4 indexes, 4.81/6 penetration
· 20 sims varying session length
· 250 million rounds each
© 2009 Norman Wattenberger
