What is the probability that I will achieve goals?

Let’s turn this around and look at the probabilities of success rather than failure. First we will set a goal. In this chart the goal is 2,000 units. The rules, strategy, and amounts bet are fixed in all sims on this page and are stated on the next page. We now will look at bankrolls from 100 to 2,000 units and plot the probability that we will make this goal. Two curves are provided. The red curve displays the probabilities with no limit on the number of hands. That is we will play until we make our goal or lose our entire bankroll. Obviously if we start at 2,000 units, we have a 100% chance of success since our goal is also 2,000 units. The probability of success rises quickly with larger bankrolls reaching a 50% chance of reaching 2,000 units with a 300 unit bankroll.

The green line is plotted with a time limit in mind. Here we play until we hit our goal, lose our bankroll, or play 10,000 hands, whichever comes first. The curve is very different indicating that we run out of time often with smaller bankrolls. Even with a bankroll of 1,900 units, we will not hit 2,000 in 10,000 hands about 5% of the time.

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 © 2009 Norman Wattenberger