Blackjack Advantage and Units Won/Lost vs. True Count

When counting cards, the count is better for you at extremely high counts with two esoteric exceptions (described at the end.) Iíve attached a combination chart which shows Blackjack Advantage and Units Won/Lost vs. True Count using Wong's Hi Lo strategy. The green area shows the losses at negative values and gains at positive values. Of course, the big gains and losses are at relatively low plus or minus counts, because this is where the majority of hands exist. The red line shows advantage. It is very smooth for the majority of counts, but goes wild at the very high and low counts. This is despite the fact that this is a simulation of one billion hands and the data has been smoothed (with a quadratic B-spline algorithm.) Problem is, there just arenít that many hands at the extreme counts and the variance is obscene. Of course, if you play long enough, you will experience a few wild counts. Your results at those counts are essentially random. Unfortunately, the human mind is more likely to remember such events, even though they have no meaning. This is why people watch X-files and other silly TV shows.


  • 1. If you are playing single deck Blackjack, and you and all other players play without any variation whatever, then certain wild TCís will only occur with certain dealt card sequences. This will result in automatic wins or losses at specific extremely high or low counts. The odds of running into this situation are approximately zero.
  • 2. If you are side-counting Aces and there are none left, youíve got a problem with a high count.

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