Exact vs. Estimated True Count Calculation

This section summarizes sims of nine billion Blackjack hands with various methods of desk estimation. With the parameters that I used, TC calculation using exact (to the card) deck depth gave a .829% advantage and $17.29 win rate. When estimating the number of decks, generally, the worse the method of estimation, the lower your advantage, but the higher your win rate. This is due to overbetting. To show where this overbetting occurs, I chose a common method of deck estimation (287-312 cards=6 decks, 235-286=5 decks, etc.) and compared it to exact depth. Advantage is .810% and win rate $17.32 (very slightly higher than using exact remaining cards.) I created a chart showing the average bet on the Y-axis and deck depth on the X-axis. In general, average bet increases as deck depth increases because there are more high TC's. The average bet increases smoothly when TC calculation is performed with exact remaining cards. However, the increase is lumpy when the remaining decks are estimated. If you look at the chart (link is below) you will see how the sloppy estimate shows lumps of higher betting. The lumps increase in volume as deck depth increases because of the higher percentage of large TC's. These lumps in the graph signify the areas of overbetting. The area of the largest lump is the area of highest risk.



The better your deck esitmation the smoother and more accurate your betting, improving exposure to risk but not income.

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